The Fallacy of Hasty Generalization

Dear It's Taophieyc reader,

Today, let's talk about a topic of statistics which is now very interwoven with our everyday life. I didn't even realize there was a term for this phenomenon until I heard it in a vox-pop video I saw on youtube.

First and foremost, a fallacy is a mistaken belief, especially one based on unsound argument.

As explained by Wikipedia, hasty generalization is an informal fallacy generalization by reaching an inductive generalization based on insufficient evidence- essentially making a hasty conclusion without considering all the variables. In statistics, it may involve basing broad conclusions regarding the statistics of a survey from a small sample group that fails to sufficiently represent an entire population.

The fallacy is also known as: Illicit Generalization, Fallacy of Insufficient Sample, Generalization from the Particular, Leaping to a Conclusion, Hasty Induction, Law of Small Numbers, Secundum quid.

Hasty generalization involves drawing a conclusion based on a small sample size, rather than looking at statistics that are much more in line with the typical or average situation. Logically, sample S is taken from population P. Meanwhile, sample S is a very small part of population P. Therefore, drawing conclusion C from sample S is precisely what hasty generalization is.

It cant be said for sure that a particular thing is exclusive to a peculiar sect if adequate sampling and research hasn't been conducted.

For those who still can't relate, let's cite a few examples.

• Smith, who is from say Lagos, decides to attend graduate school at Ohio State University. He has never been to the US before. The day after he arrives, he is walking back from an orientation session and sees two white (albino) squirrels chasing each other around a tree. In his next phone call  home, he tells his family that American squirrels are white.  

• Saying all men are cheats because your previous boyfriends cheated on you.
• Saying all ladies are cheats because your previous girlfriends have all cheated on you.
• All success is brought about by good luck. 
• Police officers are corrupt.
• Police officers are heroes. 
• All women want men to be romantic. 
• Your family will always be there for you. 
• Friends are people who will never let you down no matter what.
• Men all want the same thing – money, power, and fame.
• Nerdy kids are all going to grow up to be rich and so on.

In conclusion, I think it is imperative to be sure of facts before drawing conclusions. It's wrong to dive head-first into the pool of conclusions drawn from baseless assumptions. Remember, if 50 million people believe in a fallacy, it doesn't make it any less a fallacy.

Don't forget to drop your opinions on this topic in the comment section below.

See you on the next post.

It's Taophieyc!